SKU Sales Forecast at National Level

The page describes the Planned SKU Sales Forecast at National Level table in the National Forecast tab

representsTo set national targets, it's sufficient to have at least one SKU added to the plan. Simply access the 'National Forecast' tab, and you'll find a table displaying all the SKUs added to the plan along with relevant information.

National Forecast

SKU Sales Forecast at National Level table

Each SKU added during the configuration process will have a row in the table. The first column of this row will provide details such as the SKU name, its Relevant Market, and the Data Source-Channel combination used for generating the forecast.

First column of the table - SKU | Relevant Market | Data Source | Channel

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Historical Data (Volumes)

The second header of the table is named Historical Data (Volumes) and is split into 2 halves:

• last 3 months with available data

• Average Growth % - quarterly / yearly

Historical Data columns

For each SKU, the system will present sales data measured in volumes for the last 3 months(regardless of the cycle length) for which data is available. If no data is available for a month, the system will display N/A.

Quarterly average growth refers to the average rate of growth over three months, calculated by the ratio between the sales volumes in the previous quarter and those from two prior quarters:

$$\text{Average growth}_\text{quarterly} = \left( \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{3} \text{Sales}_{i}}{\sum_{i=1}^{3} \text{Sales}_{i-3}} - 1 \right) \times 100$$

where:

• $\sum_{i=1}^{3} \text{Sales}_{i}$ represents the sum of sales in volumes in the previous quarter;

• $\sum_{i=1}^{3} \text{Sales}_{i-3}$ represents the sum of sales in volumes from two quarters ago;

• 1 represents the last month with sales data available

Example:

If the last month with sales data is March then quarterly growth is calculated

$$\text{Average growth}_\text{quarterly} = \left( \frac{\sum_{i=Jan}^{Mar} \text{Sales}_{i}}{\sum_{j=Oct}^{Dec} \text{Sales}_{j-3}} - 1 \right) \times 100$$

Quarterly growth, is in fact 3 months of growth, and it may not always fall on full quarters, for example, if the last month with data is Feb, then the growth compares Dec-Feb with Sep-Nov

Quarterly average growth will always be calculated based on the last 3 months with data regardless of the cycle length!

Yearly average growth refers to the average rate of growth throughout the cycle length, calculated by the ratio between the sales volumes in the previous quarter with the same period of the previous year:

$$\text{Average growth}_\text{yearly} = \left( \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n} \text{Sales}_{i}}{\sum_{i=1}^{n} \text{Sales}_{i-12}} - 1 \right) \times 100$$

where:

• $\sum_{i=1}^{n} \text{Sales}_{i}$ represents the sum of sales in volumes in the previous quarter;

• $\sum_{i=1}^{n} \text{Sales}_{i-12}$ represents the sum of sales in volumes from the same period of the last year;

• n represents the cycle length.

Yearly average growth will always be calculated based on the cycle length.

When the cycle length < 3, the yearly average growth will be calculated using data from the most recent three months.

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Budget

The third header of the table is named Budget and is split into 3 parts:

• Year: displays the budget value for each SKU. If no budget is set for that SKU, the field remains blank;

• YTD(month_name): presents the cumulative sales value from January to the last month with available data, with the month name displayed in brackets. If sales data in value is unavailable, this field is left blank.

• Remaining(month+1 - Dec): calculates the difference between the budget and the year-to-date sales. If either the budget or the sales value is unavailable, the field is left blank.

Budget columns

Visibility of the budget columns in the table is permitted only to users with TS-Read budget permission.

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Total Cycle

The fourth header of the table is named Total Cycle and is split into 2 main parts:

• Calculated data for the current cycle: includes Volumes, Value, and DOT

• Calculated data / Growth over other cycles: presents information on cyclic and yearly growth, indicating comparisons with previous cycles and the previous year.

The volumes header contains a column with editable cells for each month in the current cycle and a Total column. Within these columns, targets for each month in the current cycle must be established.

$$\text{Value} ={\text{Total Volumes} \times \text{Price}} {\qquad\qquad}_{\text{,where price is set in Configuration}}$$

$$\text{DOT} ={\text{Total Volumes} \times \text{Volumes to DOT}} {\qquad\qquad}_{\text{,where Volumes to DOT is set in Configuration}}$$

If the Price by month option is set in Configuration, then:

$$\text{Value} = \sum_{i=1}^{n}{\text{Volumes}_{i} \times \text{Price}_{i}} {\qquad\qquad}_{\text{,where n = volumes or price in month n}}$$

Access to editing the Volumes columns is permitted only to users with TS-Write permission, applicable only when the plan is in the National state.

Quarterly and yearly average growth are also calculated in this table, as follows:

• Quarterly growth is calculated as a comparison between the current cycle's target and the sales from the previous months based on the duration of the current cycle;

• Yearly growth is calculated as a comparison between the current cycle's target and sales from the same months of the previous year.

Quarterly and yearly growth can be calculated using volumes, value, and DOT. The same formulas are applied uniformly across all three measurements:

$$\text{Quarterly Growth} = \text{Total Volumes} - \text{Total Volumes of Previous Quarter}$$

$$\text{Yearly Growth} = \text{Total Volumes} - \text{Total Volumes of Same Period of Previous Year}$$

where:

• $\text{Total Volumes}$ represents the total volumes for the current cycle in the current year;

• $\text {Total Volumes of Previous Quarter}$ represents the total volumes for the quarter immediately preceding the current cycle;

• $\text{Total Volumes of Same Period of Previous Year}$ represents the total volumes for the equivalent months in the previous year.

Quarterly and Yearly growth are always calculated based on the cycle length.

Total Cycle columns

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Market Share and Target Market Share

If the 'Market Share' options are activated in the configuration, then the SKU Sales Forecast table will contain the following columns:

• average and exit market share

• average and exit target market share

Average Market Share is calculated as the proportion of SKU sales and Relevant Market sales for the last x months with available data, where x represents the cycle length (using the same measurement):

$$\text{Market Share}_\text{average} = \frac{\sum{\text{SKU sales in the last } x \text{ months}}}{\sum{\text{Relevant Market sales in the last } x \text{ months}} }{\qquad _{\text{,where x= cycle length}}}$$

Exit Market Share is calculated as the proportion of SKU sales and Relevant Market sales in the most recent month with available data (using the same measurement):

$$\text{Market Share}_\text{exit} = \frac{\text{SKU sales in the last} \text{ month}}{\text{Relevant Market sales in the last}\text{ month}}$$

Average Target Market Share is calculated as the proportion of the SKU target and Relevant Market target for the current cycle(using the same measurement):

$$\text{Target Market Share}_\text{average} = \frac{\sum{\text{SKU target in the planned cycle}}}{\sum{\text{Relevant Market target in the planned cycle}} }$$

Exit Target Market Share is calculated as the proportion of the SKU target and Relevant Market target for the last month in the current cycle(using the same measurement):

$$\text{Target Market Share}_\text{exit} = \frac{\text{SKU target in the last} \text{ month}}{\text{Relevant Market target in the last}\text{ month}}$$

To calculate Market Share and Target Market Share, every SKU included in the plan must have assigned a Relevant Market during the configuration step.

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Examples to understand the calculations presented in the table:

Let's consider the scenario where we need to set targets for Q2 2023, with the latest sales data available from Q1 2023. In the Configuration tab, we included an SKU named Test_SKU with a yearly budget assigned, the salesDate in Mar2023, and the price and Volumes to DOT set in Configuration.

$$Average Growth _{quarterly} = \left(\frac{Sales_{(Jan2023 + Feb2023 + Mar2023)}}{Sales_{(Oct2022 + Nov2022 + Dec 2022)}} - 1\right ) * 100$$

$$Average Growth _{yearly} = \left(\frac{Sales_{(Jan2023 + Feb2023 + Mar2023)}}{Sales_{(Jan2022 + Feb2022 + Mar2022)}} - 1 \right ) * 100$$

$$YTD_{(Mar2023)} = {Sales_{(Jan2023+Feb2023+Mar2023)}}$$

$${Remaining_{(Apr2023-Dec2023)} = YearlyBudget - YTD}$$

$$\text{Total Volumes} = Sales _{(Apr2023+May2023+Jun2023)}$$

$$\text{Total Value = Total Volumes } \times \text{Price}$$

$$\text{Total Value = Total Volumes } \times \text{Volumes to DOT}$$

$$Growth _{quarterly} = Targets_{(Apr2023 + May2023 + Jun2023)}-Sales_{(Jan2023 + Feb2023 + Mar2023)}$$

$$Growth _{yearly} = Targets_{(Apr2023 + May2023 + Jun2023)}-Sales_{(Apr2022 + May2022 + Jun2022)}$$

$$\text{Market Share}_\text{average} = \frac {SKU sales_{(Jan2023+Feb2023+Mar2023)}}{RM sales_{(Jan2023+Feb2023+Mar2023)}}$$

$$\text{Market Share}_\text{exit} = \frac {\text{SKU sales}_{(Mar2023)}}{\text{RM sales}_{(Mar2023)}}$$

$$\text{Target Market Share}_\text{average} = \frac {\text{SKU target}_{(Apr2023+May2023+Jun2023)}}{\text{RM target}_{(Apr2023+May2023+Jun2023)}}$$

$$\text{Target Market Share}_\text{exit} = \frac {\text{SKU target}_{(Jun2023)}}{\text{RM target}_{(Jun2023)}}$$